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Musk Disputes NASA Safety Panel’s Lunar Launch Estimates

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Elon Musk has disputed a NASA safety panel estimate that about 22 Starship launches would be needed to refuel a lunar lander in orbit. “That’s way too high,” Musk wrote on X. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”

The figure came from Charlie Precourt, a former astronaut and member of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel. At the panel’s quarterly public meeting on October 22, Precourt flagged refuelling for the Artemis IV mission, planned to land a crew on the Moon in 2028, as a major risk. “We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander,” Precourt said, according to Ars Technica. “I think the last estimate is around 22 flights.”

Starship burns nearly all of its propellant reaching Earth orbit, The Register reported, so it cannot continue to the Moon without a refill. SpaceX plans to launch a depot spacecraft that acts as a fuel station in orbit, then send tanker Starships to fill it before the lunar lander docks and tops up.

Illustration of tanker spacecraft transferring fuel to an orbital depot above Earth
Illustration for this story

Every tanker trip is a full rocket launch, which is why the count matters for time, cost, and risk before astronauts leave Earth, The Register reported.

The panel also praised Artemis II and NASA’s new administrator, Jared Isaacman, but warned that retiring Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft could leave US access to orbit short of a backup, The Register reported.

Source: The Register

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